What’s up hoop fans, and welcome to another Full Timeout. Who else’s favorite time of the year also happens to be Christmas? The vibes are just top tier right now. Christmas spirit is high, decorations are everywhere, everyone’s getting gifts (maybe), and coworkers are bugging you less thanks to the holiday PTO spike. The only thing that can mess this up is if you landed on Santa’s naughty list… or your favorite NBA team didn’t get a Christmas Day game. Speaking of gifts — Hornets fans might’ve already unwrapped one. Kon Knueppel now has the second-most 20+ point games on 50/40/90 shooting splits by a rookie, trailing only Stephen Curry, which tells you the type of player he can be in the future.

Meme of the Week → For a second there things were actually looking up for the Golden State Warriors. Got off to a good start, Steph was doing Steph things, Jimmy Butler looked fresh, not to mention Jonothan Kuminga and Moses Moody have made solid leaps. But since that early start this pretty much sums up where the Warriors are at now:

Year of the Cyclones → The Iowa State Cyclones blew out the former #1 ranked Purdue on the road last week by 23 points (81-58) making it the worst home loss in Purdue history. They later followed it up on Thursday with a gritty win at home against Iowa for the Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series.

The Beard Reaches 10th on All-Time Scoring List → James Harden passes Carmelo Anthony as he becomes the NBA’s 10th player on the all-time scoring list. He dropped 34 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists in a loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Rob Wright for the Win → BYU survived a close one against the Clemson Tigers in a scrappy 67-64 win for the Jimmy V Classic. Rob Wright calls game, hitting a clutch three-pointer over two defenders at the buzzer. BYU overcame its largest second-half deficit ever (43-22).

New York Advances to NBA Cup Finals → Jalen Brunson drops 40 points to lift the Knicks past the Orlando Magic in the NBA Cup Semifinals (132-120). They face the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday (12/16).

He Makes it Look Stephortless → Stephen Curry returned from a left quad injury on Friday (12/12) and dropped 39 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists in a loss to the Timberwolves. This marked his 94th 35-PT game since turning 30, now the most in history, breaking Michael Jordan’s 93-game record. He later followed it up Sunday with a 48-PT game on 12/19 shooting from three-point range and now holds the record for most 40-PT games after turning 30, also passing Michael Jordan.

The Spurs currently sit at #5 in the West with a 17–7 record and boast a NET #7 offensive rating and a NET #14 defensive rating. They’re fresh off a thriller against OKC in the NBA Cup semifinals and will face the Knicks in the championship on Tuesday (12/16). This team is legit offensively — no question — but they’ve got some clear holes on the defensive end, especially on the perimeter.

De’Aaron Fox has a -0.3 defensive estimated plus-minus (dEPM), which ranks in the 56th percentile per Dunks & Threes. Defensive estimated plus-minus measures how much a player hurts or helps their team on defense per 100 possessions with +0.0 being the average. Harrison Barnes sits at -1.0 dEPM (20th percentile), and Keldon Johnson is at -1.2 dEPM (13th percentile). Having Wemby covers up a lot of those issues primarily in the paint, which is why the Spurs can still win games while also having a top-10 offense. Stephon Castle has been a bright spot on defense too, ranking in the 73rd percentile in dEPM.

But if the Spurs want to go from good to championship-level, adding a two-way force on the perimeter and in the paint is non-negotiable. Now enter Giannis Antetokounmpo into the equation. Giannis instantly patches every defensive hole — rim protection, weak-side rotations, point-of-attack help, everything. And, obviously, you’re adding 30 PPG-level scoring on top of Wemby and a young core that’s only getting better.

The question is: what’s the price? If I’m the GM, the offer is simple: De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, and three first-round picks. The Spurs have 36 draft picks over the next seven years — more than OKC — so losing three isn’t even a dent. And contract-wise, the assets match perfectly: Fox ($37M) + Vassell ($27M) + 3 firsts for Giannis ($54M) + Kevin Porter Jr. ($5M) meets CBA requirements and works for both sides. Yes, you lose some scoring and playmaking from Fox and Vassell, but in return you’re getting a top-3 player in basketball, elite defense at all three levels, and a steady guard in KPJ who can score and play-make while Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper grow into bigger roles. Throw in Thanasis just to make Giannis feel at home, and I guarantee that seals the deal. Get ready for your new-and-improved Twin Towers 2.0 — Wemby & Giannis.

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Other than the fact that Iowa State just put BTA against the former #1 Purdue (81–58), this team is legit on both sides of the floor and has the best chance, in my opinion, to win it all. What matters most when it comes to having a championship team are these five pillars: depth, playing both sides of the ball, bigs, guard play, and most importantly — it factors. Iowa State clearly has all five, more so than its peers.

The Cyclones are ranked NET #2 in the country per KenPom and also have the #11 offensive rating and #2 defensive rating in the country. They have a good bench with guys like Jamarion Batemon, Nate Heise, and Dominick Nelson. They have a complete and experienced starting five with guys like Tamin Lipsey (16.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 5.7 APG) running the show, Milan Momcilovic (18.3 PPG, 54.2 FG%, 53.6 3P%), and Joshua Jefferson (17.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 5.4 APG). And don’t sleep on Blake Buchanan, who’s a solid center, and Killyan Toure, who’s also been a steady shooting guard to pair with Lipsey.

Iowa State also shoots 43.8% from three as a team and averages ~94.6 PPG. They play a no-middle defense which forces teams baseline and sometimes show a 1-3-1 while occasionally trapping the ball when it goes to the corners, causing a lot of trouble for opponents. Like I said earlier, when it comes time to get a bucket when you need it most, I trust this team and their big three to lock in more than anyone else. Big 12 basketball this year is stacked with talent, so it’ll be a good test for the Cyclones come conference play — but I got them coming out on top and stamped as favorites to win it all.

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If you’re a Tennessee fan, brace yourself for this take and for what you’re in store for this season, because it might be a roller coaster. You can always count on Rick Barnes to form a team that has a lot of brutes on it. Out of the Volunteers’ top-5 scorers, four of them are forwards, and none of them are really three-point shooters, volume and percentage wise, besides Nate Ament.

Oh yeah, and he’s shooting 30% from three. Speaking of Nate Ament, in games vs Houston, Kansas, Syracuse, and Illinois, he’s shooting 25% from the field (12–47) and 20% from three (3–15). Not really ideal for the highly touted freshman and projected top-10 pick. Not to mention their best player, Ja’Kobi Gillespie (17 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.4 APG), is currently shooting 41% from the field and 34% from three.

To make things even more tough, the SEC is stacked with a bunch of elite offenses per KenPom — Alabama (#2 ORtg), Vanderbilt (#3 ORtg), Auburn (#15 ORtg), Florida (#22 ORtg), Kentucky (#27 ORtg), etc. The Vols have a matchup on Tuesday (12/16) vs Louisville and they need to up their offense — whether it’s guard play, forwards, or your star freshman — or else the whole squad better be ready to have their best Tony Allen impression.

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🟢 Rising:

🔴 Falling:

🟢 Rising:

🔴 Falling:

Got to love these top-25 matchups man! It’s been a minute since I’ve seen a John Calipari and Kelvin Sampson showdown. The last one was actually March 29, 2019 in the NCAA Tournament. Calipari is 17–3 versus the Cougars all-time. It’ll take some shot-making for the Razorbacks to get past Houston. The Cougars have the #5 defensive rating in the country per KenPom. While Arkansas is balanced on both sides of the ball, their defense is not nearly as good.

This is actually a perfect matchup for the Cougars because they lack some size and experience from last year. For Houston to win, they’ll have to slow down Darius Acuff and Maleek Thomas, who are both averaging ~15+ PPG. The game will likely turn into a dogfight due to Houston’s ability to dictate games with its physicality.

Acuff and Thomas are future pros, but as it stands right now, they’re college freshmen going up against a slightly more experienced Houston team that plays extremely hard for 40 minutes. I also like Houston’s forwards to slow down Trevon Brazile enough with guys like Joseph Tugler and Chris Cenac Jr. Unless Acuff and Thomas decide to wake up and shoot lights out, I think the Cougars have just enough to escape.
🎯 Full Timeout Pick: Houston Cougars

The NBA Cup Finals are here and the stakes couldn’t be higher. The winning team can walk away with ~$500K per player while the runner-up can get ~$200K per player. The Knicks have a top-5 offense while the Spurs have a well-balanced squad. This lowkey feels like an NBA Finals preview…

But as for the matchups, all key players will be playing tonight, so this will be a must-watch game. Although the Knicks will be without Miles McBride, I know Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns can carry the scoring load. I got this game coming down to pure matchups and buckets due to the fact these teams are pretty even split metrics-wise. The Spurs’ defense is better, but the Knicks have the better offense and the better closer.
🎯 Full Timeout Pick: New York knicks

Catch you at the next one,